Update 2019-08-29: All Amtrak trains and Greyhound buses from Virginia to coastal Georgia cancelled for Sunday and Saturday, and flights even if not canceled are absurdly expensive at this late date, so I’m not leaving for Virginia today; I’ll be staying here for the duration. And these cancellations indicate Amtrak and Greyhound at least are considering Dorian something to worry about.

Hurricane Dorian is expected to be category 4 (130-156 mph winds) when it lands Monday somewhere on the east coast of Florida, and we could see tropical storm winds (39-73 mph) in Cedar Key Saturday and in Valdosta Sunday.

National Hurricane Center: Hurricane Dorian, Winds, Tropical Storm Force, Earliest Reasonable Time of Arrival

The storm could go right over Valdosta like the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane,

1935 Labor Day Hurricane track color coded by intensity.

or swing east over Jacksonville like in 1950, or run over the Florida panhandle and Albany, GA, like Hurricane Michael just did last year, in most cases still causing storm surges in Cedar Key, and on the Santa Fe River and elsewhere in the Suwannee River Basin. Withlacoochee River folks, from Madison to Quitman, Valdosta, Adel, and Tifton, don’t be complacent because we lucked out last time, unlike Albany. Batten down. If you’re in Florida, prepare to evacuate if you need to.

Wind Speed Probabilities

And no, we don’t need new toll roads to evacuate: planning ahead plus more local shelters would be more effective and less expensive in dollars and environmental effects.

5 Day Cone

Domenica Davis, Weather.com, 29 August 2019, Labor Day Weekend Hurricanes Like Dorian Have Often Ruined the Holiday,

Hurricane Dorian will make its approach to the Southeast coast on Labor Day weekend, which is right in the middle of what is historically the busiest portion of the Atlantic hurricane season, and is also known for having the most intense U.S. hurricane landfall on record….

That most intense storm was the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane:

On Sept. 2, 1935, the “Labor Day Hurricane” made landfall in the central Florida Keys as a Category 5 storm, in the depth of the Great Depression.

It made a second landfall near Cedar Key, Florida, as a Category 2 hurricane on Sept. 4.

So far, the models are converging on Hurricane Dorian landing around Melbourne, FL, but we will see where it actually does, and where it goes from there.

Oh, and Valdosta: nobody wants to see any sewage spills during Dorian.

 -jsq, John S. Quarterman, Suwannee RIVERKEEPER®

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