Elsa again Tropical Storm, but hurricane warnings persist, landfall soon 2021-07-07

Update 2021-07-08: Sewage Spills: Valdosta, GA, Starke, FL 2021-07-08.

Elsa has downgraded to Tropical Storm again, and is late for landfall.

As of 8 AM this morning Elsa is 35 miles west of Cedar Key, according to the National Hurricane Center. Pretty much everything in Cedar Key is closed today.

The storm track has moved slightly west. “On the forecast track, Elsa will make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late this morning or this afternoon.” Late morning would be high tide, making storm surge worse.

Elsa is still predicted to move north up the Suwannee River Valley, where county offices are closed today all the way up into Georgia. Then over the Okefenokee Swamp Thursday, on up the Georgia coast, but now somewhat inland, with tropical storm warnings most of the way, and storm surge warnings for the Georgia coast through Charleston, S.C. And on up the eastern seaboard, inland until Virginia, onwards to the Canadian Maritimes by Saturday.

[5-day Cone No Line And Wind]
5-day Cone No Line And Wind

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

  • West coast of Florida from the Middle of Longboat Key to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

  • West coast of Florida from Chassahowitzka to the Steinhatchee River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

  • West coast of Florida from south of Chassahowitzka to the Middle of Longboat Key
  • West coast of Florida north of the Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee River
  • Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

  • North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
  • Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas, the mid-Atlantic coast, southeastern New England, and the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa.

Tornadoes are possible along the coast and inland.

[Peak Surge prediction]
Peak Surge prediction

Elsa has already rained on the notorious phosphogypsum pond at Piney Point near Tampa. Anybody got any news of effects on that?

Elsa’s path will rain on the titanium strip mines near Starke in north central Florida that spilled during Hurricane Irma. That area has already had heavy rains and sewage spills, and the Suwannee’s tributary the Santa Fe River is already in flood in two locations.

Then Elsa will rain on the proposed Georgia mine site within three miles of the Okefenokee Swamp. You can tell the Georgia Environmental Protection Division to deny the miners’ permit applications:

And on the North Carolina hog farms that seem to be a disaster in every storm.

If Florida is true to form, many people will be without power for a week or two. Perhaps the state should spend on solar panels and batteries instead of toll road and water pipeline boondoggles.

Plus of course if we don’t get sewage spills in Georgia to add to cattle manure runoff, plus some more from Starke, FL, that will be very surprising.

But we needed rain, so it’s good we’re getting some.

[Rainfall prediction]
Rainfall prediction

 -jsq, John S. Quarterman, Suwannee RIVERKEEPER®

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